CRISIS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FACE OF THE CONVULSED WORLD OF “HOMO COVIDENSIS”

By: Dr. Eduardo ROLDÁN.                                                              

 “The destruction of intelligence is a much greater plague than any infection“

MARCUS AURELIUS.

INTRODUCTION: WHERE ARE WE?

World history reminds us of multiple pandemics: that of influenza in Mesopotamia (1,200 BC), the plague of Athens (429-426 BC), the plague of Justinian (541 AD), the plague in Central Asia (698), the Black Death (1346-1353), Spanish smallpox in Mexico (1521), smallpox (1796), yellow fever (1881), measles (1954), the so-called Spanish flu (1918), the Asian flu or virus AH2N2 (1957), the virus AH3N2 (1968), the AIDS virus or HIV (1981), SARS (2002), influenza AH1N1 (2009), etc.

Today we face the new coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 that causes the disease called COVID-19 and that has generated the pandemic announced by The World Health Organization (WHO) on February 11, 2020. It is the worst, as it represents a combination of political, economic, psychological, and biological warfare. Moreover, it has emerged in the midst of an historical multidimensional crisis and in a world without statesmen. 

In truth, the world is in urgent need of a renewal of its political and social leadership. It is full of politicians who stand out for their smallness, some who govern large countries, others who govern small ones but are equally irrelevant to the great challenges faced today by humanity.  

We live in times of dysfunctional democracies. We are in the age of “homo covidensis“.

Autocratic, ultra-nationalist, nationalist, and populist leaders from many countries decided to continue living in an alternative reality, a fictitious reality, a world parallel to the real one, in order to not face the pandemic crisis and “to not alarm their fellow citizens”. In fact, they made that decision because they lacked even a minimum knowledge of the problem, because of their ineptitude, because of their resentments, because of their contempt for scientists and science, because of their arrogance, because of their negligence, because of their lack of leadership, because of their erratic decisions about the pandemic, because of nepotism, because of their authoritarian voluntarism, because of their blindness, because of their tendency to procrastinate, because of their ignorance and poverty of spirit and in order “to not cause further damage to their political projects” … projects which in fact were already damaged, as caused by their own erratic actions taken before, during, and after the pandemic crisis. 

In this regard, Antonio Sola, a specialist in political marketing, synthesizes in an extraordinary way a viewpoint on the politicians whom he himself has publicized or promoted: “We have monsters created in an image that neither corresponds to their identity of themselves nor to that of the people who voted for them. For years, within the marketing industry we have created products based on image, which today represents a communicative farce that is exhausted”. In this sense, I totally agree with Dr. Modesto Seara Vázquez when he states: “It is unacceptable that ossified thinkers or hypochondriacal statesmen, with an extremely restricted personal chronological horizon, impose their myopic vision of the world on the rest of humanity”.

The officially recognized result is that in Latin America alone there have been more than nine million people infected by COVID-19 – more than the seven million in the United States and almost a quarter of the total of the more than thirty-seven million in the world. However, according to the WHO the coronavirus could have affected 10% of the world’s population, equivalent to 760 million people. Furthermore, the world has more than one million deaths from COVID-19. We have many deaths provoked by the globalization of disorder. 

Today we live in times of denial, disruption, degradation, and deception. It is essential to raise our voices and say “Enough with the silliness!” Lucio Vero wrote. “Do not say it if it is not convenient. Do not say it if it is not true”. I vigorously disagree and affirm: “I say it because it is convenient. I say it because it is true.” The human being must demand results and concrete actions to solve serious problems confronting nations today.  He must put aside illusions designed to deceive, and stop believing in today’s political manipulators; for, as the great showman Jamy Ian Swiss, once said: “Being a magician is the most honest job there is: he promises to deceive you, and that is precisely what he does”. 

The time has come to undertake some deep reflection, because we cannot remain silent and admire the “magnificent desolation”, as the astronaut Edwin Aldrin said when describing the moon. And, yes, we need to go deeper into the words of Neil Armstrong when he stepped on the moon and declared: “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” At this historic moment, we must reinterpret Armstrong and move forward at a rapid pace to eradicate irresponsible leaders from our minds and hold them accountable for their actions… or non-action.

Without a doubt, a society’s use of words is necessarily a reflection of the quality of its thinking.  Therefore, more than a resilient society, we must become a farsighted society of “greatness and constancy of spirit in adversity”. According to the Real Academia Española (RAE), “longanimidad” is “perseverance, magnanimity, nobility, commitment, firmness, insistence, tenacity, generosity; and constancy of spirit in difficulties, misfortunes, adversities, and all actions that are not easy”.   Clear-sighted forbearance is what must move us in these moments of regime change and epochal shift. The time has come for us to become a society that is “longánima”.

In the world there are multiple murders of conscience every day. The COVID-19 crisis is an effect, not the cause, of our ills. We must fight crime and not be complacent about it. We must govern malfeasance and not let it govern us. There is a monopoly on corruption, wealth, and force in the midst of this systemic crisis. There are others who govern through fear or govern by fear, public manipulation, and division: the “divide and conquer” or “Διαίρει καὶ βασίλευε” strategy. 

Divergence exacerbates the political-social milieu. To combat the politics of fear is indispensable, in order to prevent it from becoming chronic, settling permanently and destroying better prospects for the future. Today it is necessary to generate consensus and not dissent. 

Ambition for power and corruption rules. This is a systemic and multidimensional crisis. We should ask ourselves one question: Is this THE terminal crisis of humanity? Is it economic, political, social, ideological, cultural, or health-related? The answer is that it is comprehensive and multidimensional. And this is how it must be tackled. Some people blame globalization, but that would be very simplistic: the real fact is that globalization was not properly implemented. Its rules were not respected. Time is running out, “the accumulated problems of the 20th century have not yet been solved, and we already have to face those of the 21st. We must not lose another century while continuing with humanicide”. World society is hungry for a better and more prosperous future.

We need to reflect deeply on freedom of the spirit and generate a revolution of consciousness. Just as Marguerite Porete did in her 1310 book “The Mirror of Simple Souls” before she died at the stake for talking about freedom of the soul. It is necessary to put a stop to false prophets, autocrats of power that believe themselves the “umbilicus mundi”.  Our little treasure, our “Xiao Bao”, is our freedom. That is why “silere non possum“: I cannot keep silent.

I am convinced – like Ingo Swann (1933-2013) – that “things will change because science is changing. I will talk about the future because I believe that we are trapped in the past”. But also, in that there is already a generalized willingness to leave the past, which we can no longer change but take only its good and bad experiences, and change the present to affect our future. For a very simple reason, as Luis Brandeis, Judge of the Supreme Court of the United States pointed out in 1928: “Today there is greed for money and a delirium for power. The right to be left alone is the most absolute of rights, and the most valued by free people. We have to stand up for our freedom of thought and action.”

The pandemic took away badly implemented globalization. Julio Ocampo, columnist for El País, rightly emphasizes: “It brought fear, awaking a certain taste for the bucolic and underlined, among other things, what was already hidden among the people”: the political, economic, social, and cultural crisis, and the enormous social inequality. In the world of multilateralism, the World Health Organization (WHO) has dedicated itself to providing opinions, not solutions. It lacks leadership. As Woodrow Wilson said, “There are many voices of advice, but few voices of vision”. We are living through trade, technology, and biological wars. That is the truth. We must speak out, propose constructive ideas, not be silent and not be submissive. Undoubtedly, the economic and productive models that have prevailed up to now will have to be adapted to the indispensable changes that the post-CoVid social reality demands.

CoVid-19 is a threat to world peace.  Economically, it caused the world economy to fall by 4.5% in 2020. And it will leave a cost of more than $28 trillion in production losses with a debt level of 125 percent of GDP in advanced economies, 65 percent in emerging markets and 50 percent of GDP in low-income countries, according to figures from the World Monetary Fund. For its part the World Bank informs us that it has pushed 150 million people newly into poverty. Without a doubt, the public policy was poorly implemented. Once again this challenge has shown the co-responsibility of nations in facing global problems. The pandemic has helped us demystify power and demand more through law. We must keep in mind that the press must defend the governed and not the ruler. 

In the pandemic, no doubt, social differences have surfaced even more. We were able to comprehend that reality and its contradictions overcame fiction. Carl Sagán once said: “Knowing much is not the same as being intelligent. Intelligence is not only information, but also judgment in handling it.” Yes, we do have a lot of information, so we have to be intelligent and know how to apply it and not be manipulated by institutions – whether digital or not – much less be manipulated by autocrats. I agree with Juan Carlos Sánchez-Millán when he states that: 

“A digital society must create safe-keeping mechanisms for its databases; it must guarantee that the information is truthful and reliable, and that the contents do not infringe on the dignity and privacy of people or the security of nations. Industry, commerce, culture, education, science, and all activities inherent to human development are intimately linked to databases. Decision-making is being made on the basis of computer numerals”.

These times of crisis, of change of regime, of change of era, have allowed us to ratify that we have moved from the age of information to that of “disinformation and lies” in its maximum expression. If this is not contained, it can lead us to a war of confrontation that could become a civil war in different parts of the world. We cannot simply go on and pretend that we are not aware of what the world is facing, for this is leading to the degradation of world democracy. We cannot idly stand by. Just as too much importance is given to futures and derivatives markets in finance and trade, it is time to think about and value the “human future” as an essential value of humanity. 

There is no time to lose or reason to wait twenty more years, to see our civilization, our habitat, our economy, our culture, our democracies, and the climate destroyed… all because of our not firmly facing up to the problems and existing and future dysfunctional autocrats. If this continues, society will move from utopia to dystopia under totalitarian powers.

Enormous efforts have been made to regulate, through national and international laws, the trafficking of organs, of persons, etc. Why not then regulate the media corporations, the owners of the digital world, which every day manipulate societies more and more to obtain profits at any price and any cost, including the most essential freedom of the human being: free will. Only in this way will it be possible to balance the legal with the moral. Because, nowadays, the legal is not necessarily moral. The advance of behavioral programming and the extensive use of “social engineering” – through which human behavior is surreptitiously modified for exaggerated consumption or electoral, economic, political, or cultural ends – must be stopped.  It should no longer be accepted that human beings are a product for sale to the highest bidder by the owners of the digital world and the manipulators of the virtual world.

With the new technologies and their manipulation, the margin of distinction between a true news item and a false one has become more difficult due to the degree of sophistication in spinning the contents. This is today’s toxic society. Faced with this panorama, we critics are the optimists who believe that success will only be achieved if mechanisms are implemented through massive public pressure. We are yet in time to confront this reality that overwhelms human society in all its dimensions and should not remain unmoved by this “…vanity of vain things, to misery so great you call it human bliss” as the great Spanish poet Ramon de Campoamor so aptly put it.

It is clear that so far we are not better off and the pandemic has not made us stronger. The political class has lost quality and virtue. It lacks the talent and vocation to serve. Only palliative measures have been taken. It is notorious that States and governments have lacked a defined and transparent strategy. The opposition worldwide lacks constructive and alternative projects. Statesmen are conspicuous by their absence. There is a lack of political greatness. At certain moments it seems that minorities, however respectable they may be, set the public agenda; confrontation among institutions is encouraged and this only promotes the weakening of the democratic system. There IS no strategic State. International society is eager for a prosperous future. It is essential to slow down the progress of COVID-19 and strengthen its containment and to proceed with the application of the vaccine at a universal level… and at the same time, with clear and well-thought-out public policies, avoid the collapse of economies and strengthen infrastructure for the provision of quality public service. 

I agree with what Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of European and Foreign Affairs of France, has said: “The pandemic is the continuation, by other means, of the struggle between the great powers as well as the systematization of the power relations that were commonly seen before, with the exacerbation of the Sino-American rivalry”. This was evidenced in the fight to be the first to manufacture the vaccine against COVID-19, particularly between the US, China, Russia, and the UK. The coronavirus pandemic showed that the US has lost its global leadership role, to the extent that wealthy nations are vying for 50% of potential vaccines. I would call this the struggle for world hegemony. That is why today, more than ever, the world needs true international cooperation without preconditions. 

The United States promoted the creation of the United Nations, the self-same system which sought to generate international peace and security among nations. It brought credibility, stability, and hope to the world at the end of the Second World War in 1945, now seventy-five years ago.

Subsidiary bodies were founded to take on these global tasks: the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), etc. What is now paradoxical is that the country that once promoted the world system to give it stability, today is the same country that drills it every day, leaving vulnerable the UNESCO, the UPU (Universal Postal Union), the Paris Pact on Climate Change, and even – in the middle of a world pandemic –striking body blows to the WHO and the World Trade Organization… everywhere causing great instability. Without a doubt, the world is facing new crises and global opportunities. 

Today the world is in turmoil in health, education, trade, technology, the environment, migration, etc. It is evident that in order to have a new world governance, profound reforms to the UN system are required. This organization no longer represents the geopolitical and geo-economic reality of today. The Security Council must be transformed so that there is real representation of the countries of the 21st century and not those of the 20th century, in particular in regard to its permanent members. All its organs have highly sophisticated, highly paid, huge and stagnant bureaucracies that readily consume their annual budgets of more than $6 billion in current spending. The budget should be used more for investment and for works that benefit nations and their citizens.

Among the great global challenges facing humanity are: pandemics, the environment, mass migration, world trade, poverty, biological wars, and the unregulated digital world. The following diagram clearly reflects the globalization of disorder.

GRAPH

In relation to the environment, full compliance with the Paris Agreement of 2015 is indispensable.  Climate change is a painful reality. The permafrost phenomenon must be taken seriously. The poles are melting due to the excess heat caused by climate change and this may lead to the appearance and thawing of animal carcasses that have been dead for thousands of years which has the potential to unloose new diseases, viruses, and bacteria unknown to human beings up to now. If Greenland melts, the sea level will rise by 7 m. If Antarctica melts the sea level will rise 60 m. in 2117. It is clear that we are co-responsible for these facts before the new generations.

Migration has been exacerbated by wars and lack of opportunities worldwide. World trade cannot return to the war of tariffs and quotas where we all lose. The digital system requires transparent regulation at a global level. In the crisis of the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 the winners have been Google, Oracle, Tesla, Berkshire, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, etc.  

In short, these are some of the challenges for the rest of the 21st century. The COVID-19 crisis is an effect, not the cause of our ills. I reiterate, COVID-19 is a threat to world peace. Economically, it caused the world economy to fall by 4.5% in 2020. There is no doubt that 2020 will go down in history as a year of change and uncertainty.  There exists a systemic and multidimensional crisis. It is economic, political, social, ideological, cultural, and sanitary in nature. Consequently, the response must be comprehensive and multidimensional.

GENESIS OF THE PANDEMIC : WHAT DO WE WANT ?

The origin of the current pandemic has different analytical interpretations, some more plausible than others. Some range from the fact that the virus arrived with a meteorite impregnated with cosmic dust, inspired by the scientific ideas of Chandra Wickramasinghe and Fred Hoyle ; others from the transmission of the virus through the bat coronavirus ZC45 and/or ZXC21; others look for the explanation in conspiracy theories where some elites of the world wish to control and reduce the masses; others that it was created in a military laboratory that lost control of it. The truth is that the global crisis, accelerated by the SARS-CoV-2 catalyst that generated the COVID-19 disease, has caused uncertainty and political, economic and social instability in the world. It is an historic break in the development of humanity.

There are ideas that “the new coronavirus was created in a laboratory, and was deliberately released, which has been refuted by many scientists around the world. A new study suggests that the unusual genomic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease that is responsible for the global pandemic, point to a laboratory modification, rather than a natural evolution.” However, valid questions are: “Who originated it and where did it originate?” 

In this regard, let us review other lines of thought. In 1981, the science-fiction book shaped as a novel and entitled “The Eyes of Darkness” was written by Dean Koontz and in it he mentions that “around the year 2020 a severe disease similar to pneumonia – which he calls Wuhan 400 – will spread throughout the world, attacking the lungs and bronchial tubes, being resistant to all treatments… The singular thing will be the fact that just as it appeared it will disappear but will attack again in ten years and then disappear completely”. A rereading of this work gave us cause to pause and strengthened and inspired the conspiratorial idea: the famous conspiracy theory created by Karl Popper some years ago.

The truth is that in real life, on January 28, 2020, an irrefutable event occurred. The head of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology of Harvard University, specialist in chemistry and nanometric electronics, Dr. Charles Lieber, with teaching and research contracts with Harvard University and research projects funded by up to $15 million from the National Institute of Health and the U.S. Department of Defense, was arrested in his office on orders of Andrew Lelling, Attorney General of the City of Boston, Massachusetts (Department of Justice of the United States of America). Dr. Lieber was then separated from his duties by the same University. This was in virtue of the U.S. Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, and the National Security Division of the Federal Department of Justice having instructed Andrew Lelling and four other prosecutors to investigate the matter in January 2019.  As a result, Dr. Lieber was formally accused of having hidden his secret research links with Chinese institutions and of being contractually bound since 2011 with one of the universities in Wuhan, which paid him $50,000 a month plus $158,000 in extra fees. Economic and research lab espionage? Bio-terrorism? The Wuhan University of Technology project amounted to more than $1.5 million for the purpose of building a laboratory at Wuhan University of Technology (2012-2017). This was affirmed in an interview carried out by Adriana Cohen from the Boston Herald with Andrew Lelling, Attorney General of the City of Boston, Massachusetts (Department of Justice of the United States of America).

The American scientist says he did not hide the work he was doing with his Chinese counterparts “…and that he joined five Chinese experts in 2013 to found a joint laboratory at Wuhan University of Technology”. However, according to the federal indictment, Lieber lied to the U.S. Department of Defense about his participation in the government-controlled Chinese program known as the Thousand Talents Program (2012-2015), which aims to recruit talent in foreign countries, and which the U.S. considers to be economic and research lab espionage.

It is worth noting that Dr. Lieber “has done pioneering work in nanoscience and helped create tiny wires that are thousands of times smaller in diameter than a human hair. The professor has made revolutionary advances on the frontier between nanoelectronics and medicine, including the development of a powerful bio-nanoelectronic sensor capable of detecting diseases at the level of a single infectious virus particle”.

According to Dr. Lieber’s research, published in the journal Science, a new V-shaped nanotransistor that is smaller than many viruses can be introduced into a cell and can record its activity without disrupting it. This is the idea behind the report in El País (20/01/2020).  The new device has a diameter 100 times smaller than those used so far, which are also flat, while his is flexible and three-dimensional. “These field-effect nanotransistors (known as nanoFET) represent the first monitoring of the interior of a cell with a semiconductor device”. In that sense the scientists say that “these transistors can be used to measure the flow of ions or electrical signals in the cells, especially in the neurons. They can also be associated with receptors or other biological elements to detect the presence of biochemical compounds inside a cell”. It is clear that “this work may represent a great advance in the understanding of intracellular structures”.

At a press conference organized by the prosecutor, Andrew Lelling announced that two Chinese post-graduate researchers had also been detected as foreign agents. One – Yanqing Ye (already in China), who was accused of passing information to his superiors in China and of having worked for the Chinese Army – was studying in the Department of Biomedical Engineering at Boston University; and another – Zaosong Zheng (in custody), a cancer researcher affiliated with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center at Harvard University –was arrested for trying to illegally export vials (small laboratory bottles) containing biological material to China. Without a doubt, the complexity of the matter is only the tip of the iceberg. Finally, sometime later, Dr. Lieber was released on $1 million bail with his passport was confiscated for security reasons. In addition, Harvard University is looking for his replacement for the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology.  The matter has not been brought up again; indeed, everything has been placed under a mysterious cloak so as to not further damage the national security of the United States.

To the above, we should add other strange cases such as that of Dr. Li Wenliang of Wuhan who warned, on December 30, 2019, for the first time about the emergence of the pandemic but was not listened to. Only on January 20, 2020, did China agree to declare the outbreak an emergency. To this should be added the strange assassination of Dr. Bing Liu, a researcher at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, on May 5, 2020. Apparently, Dr. Bing Liu was on the verge of making very significant findings in understanding the cellular mechanisms underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection; he was found shot dead in his home.

All these facts lead us to think about the simultaneity of the events and the plausibility of their temporal relationship. In politics there are no coincidences, only facts. In the face of these, China and the US began to blame each other for the responsibility of the pandemic. They accused each other of having spawned it and of having let it get out of control. Did Dr. Lieber’s research produce the virus? Did Dr. Lieber create the strain of the coronavirus? Did he provide China with these discoveries? Did China let the research get out of control? Was the virus planted in China?  At this point China still claims it was brought in by a group of U.S. military personnel who came to compete with their counterparts in Wuhan in October of 2019. 

This has had a disruptive effect on the US-China relationship. The truth is that China and the United States have been living a commercial and digital war for some time now. The US has declared that China concealed the seriousness of the outbreak while reinforcing its supplies of medical equipment, and Trump expressly linked the origin of the virus to China’s laboratory in Wuhan. Could this new phase be biological warfare? I believe that only history will shed light on the matter. But the only certainty we have today is the hard and irrefutable fact that the much mentioned COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, detected for the first time worldwide in Wuhan, has left a trail of desolation and uncertainty with more than 37 million infected and more than one million dead in the world amid a multidimensional global crisis. In this crisis, countries such as the United States, Brazil, India, Mexico, and the United Kingdom stand out because of the number of deaths; and similarly, in the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, and Colombia, the number of infected people.

In that light, let’s explore the following: Is China guilty of malice by the new coronavirus? In the voice of Xulio Rios, President of the Observatory of Chinese Politics, there is no basis for this. “Trump’s intention to create a commission to investigate and almost judge China for its alleged deliberate participation in the creation of the pandemic corresponds to the internal needs of US policy to divert attention from its nefarious administration and the electoral process in the United States.” Thus, there is no such conspiracy. “This is not speculation, the IMF itself highlights GDP forecasts in terms of purchasing power that, in the year 2024, China would represent 21.4% of world GDP and the United States 13.9%. Clearly it is very important for the United States to try to contain these trends.” Rios adds: “It is clear that these statements only seek to damage China’s image and contain its rise to become the world’s leading economy. And create a scapegoat for Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic in his country”… where there were more than 7 million infected and more than 200 thousand dead whereas China, the source of the pandemic, has had only 100 thousand infected and 4,746 dead. However, China’s GDP will grow by the end of 2020 by 1.5% and the US’s will decrease by 8.5%. This reflects the adequate or inadequate management of the pandemic and the results of such.

The world economy as a whole has declined. World trade will decline by 35%. World trade in goods could still fall by 200%. World tourism will have losses of $320 billion. In the world 436 million companies will be affected. Five hundred million jobs will definitely be lost and one billion workers are at risk of losing their jobs. There will be an increase of more than 150 million people who are newly poor. In the US alone there are already 50 million unemployed; in Mexico there are already 27 million unemployed. And, in general, the working poor will increase to 55%.  

In that sense, I end this section with the ideas expressed by the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, during the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the creation of the UN, on September 22, 2020. I note the high degree of coincidence of what he expressed with my approaches outlined above. In this first virtual meeting of world leaders, Guterres stressed that: “the planet was facing a health crisis of historic importance, the greatest economic calamity and loss of jobs since the Great Depression [generating] fears of a new Cold War, now between the United States and China … each with its own trade and financial rules and capabilities of artificial intelligence and the Internet”. He harshly criticized populism and nationalism, not only for their inability to contain the coronavirus, but also because they often made things worse. I totally agree with this approach since the COVID-19 has highlighted the world’s fragilities as I pointed out previously. 

The UN Secretary General was forceful and clear when he stated that: 

“the global crisis must be faced jointly by all the nations of the world and in a multidimensional way. The problems are there, they are serious, and they affect us all as human beings. We need to build new global confidence, reinvent economies, address the climate crisis, rampant corruption, crippling poverty, improve the human development index, sustainable development, because the pandemic, coupled with conflict and disruption, is dealing devastating blows to food security.”

António Guerres points out that: 

“A new national and international social contract involves building inclusive and sustainable societies. Inclusiveness implies investing in social cohesion and putting an end to all forms of exclusion, discrimination, and racism. It implies establishing a new generation of social protection, with universal health coverage and the possibility of a universal basic income.”

I am certain that the above implies “providing access to education for all and taking advantage of digital technology (since they are) the two great facilitators and equalizers of our time”. It is indispensable to establish “tax systems in which all individuals and companies pay their fair share”. And furthermore, to promote “equal rights and opportunities for women and girls”.  I concur with Antonio Guterres when he said that “the New World Agreement must remedy the historical injustices of the world’s power structures”. I am convinced that Guterres masterfully summarized the situational crisis in which we find ourselves.

I want to close this section by highlighting the visionary ideas that Modesto Seara Vázquez wrote in his book “The Decisive Hour” in 1986 where he presented us, four decades ago, with a rigorous analysis of the global crisis that the world was facing and still faces today, focusing on a multidimensional analysis. With that purpose the author articulated his ideas and arguments in a deductive way in five big sections: the destruction of the environment, the economic crisis, the social manifestations of the crisis, the political crisis, and the ideological crisis… highlighting clear proposals to face these crises, which are still valid today. These proposals validate what has been previously presented in this essay and give depth to what Guterres has expressed. 

Having established with objectivity all the exposed proposals, let us now see the options and opportunities that we have in order to face the crisis with concrete and solitary actions in perspective for the benefit of humanity as a whole.

PROPOSALS AND CONCRETE ACTIONS TOWARDS THE FUTURE: WHERE ARE WE GOING?

There will be governance in the world as long as its governments are legitimate, generate consensus and not dissent, implement truly comprehensive and multidimensional development programs, and deepen their inclusive national identities to create an intra-national environment of unity within diversity. It is irrefutable that we are living a real and Copernican change in our lives generated by the multidimensional crisis and driven by the pandemic. It is an existential crisis for the survival of the human being. José Vasconcelos wrote “For my race the spirit will speak“, I paraphrase him and affirm: “My spirit speaks today loud and clear because the intelligence of the human race has been offended.” From my point of view the world is in a process of change. But the changes outlined in this essay must be implemented and deepened in order to prepare for a better future for humanity. It is well known that: “The crisis has produced an adaptation at all levels of the lifestyle of citizens, of the economy, of the way of doing business and developing all types of work activity.” The truth is that the promotion of a multilateral network of international governance models will be unobjectionable. To consolidate this adaptation, it is essential to act on all fronts. The search for new governance will be based on setting priorities in the use of national and global resources to protect the lives and well-being of human beings, as well as the conservation of our planet.

The defense of the State or a union of States can no longer be restricted to the military. In this sense, the defense of States occurs in representative democracy, which requires as a conditio sine qua non the free exchange of ideas and opinions. However, “the campaigns of spreading false news or the phenomenon of the generation of authentic echo chambers in social networks – whose effect is the reverberation of the most radical postulates without the possibility of contrast – put liberal democracy in a serious predicament, which is [the inhibition of] the formation of free public opinion”. There is no doubt – as Carlos de Palma affirms – that the democratic system has been oppressed by political parties, which have become partocracies: “inbred entities, reluctant to incorporate scientists or critics or technicians from outside their environment, experts in the manipulation of the media and not very attentive to the proposals of civil society. Therefore, it is essential to reach a consensus on the State systems of health, education, security, and defense, as well as on the judiciary and the policies of foreign diplomatic relations and international cooperation”.

In this environment, it is imperative to implement public fiscal policies that contribute to the aggregate supply of the economy with measures to stimulate the economy and a constant rationalization of public spending. “It is crucial for the health of employees and for successful results of the companies themselves to foresee the psychological impact that this crisis has provoked on workers. Hence, it is necessary that organizations and executives adopt measures to mitigate it”.

According to the UN, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 1.6 billion students and 63 million teachers. In this context, it is relevant to highlight that a study conducted by Insights for Education estimated that in 2020 three hundred billion learning days were lost due to school closures, of which 84% occurred in less developed countries. The big lesson is that education and the educational system have to be reinvented.

To face the future in the educational sector it is essential to prepare students with logical reasoning skills and metadata analytical capabilities, and with project advice and computer programming to face the digital world. Face-to-face education has shown its limitations; therefore virtual education must be strengthened beyond school walls and be hybridized, for which purpose students must be motivated to enter the work force, at least part-time, in order that they be better prepared to face what is now a turbulent world. We must invest more in technological innovation and in adapting to new realities, and be prepared to react immediately in the face of future crises of all kinds. Students must acquire an interdisciplinary knowledge of global economic relations accompanied by experience outside of class that will help them stay on top of a world threatened by the rise of nationalism and populism. For the out-of-classroom experience, universities should link their students to government institutions, national and international companies, and non-profit organizations to extend their knowledge and make the outcome even more interdisciplinary and international. The purpose is to develop students as pioneers in inclusiveness and sustainability.

UNESCO has pointed out that the future of our countries depends on education. Today’s schools will be tomorrow’s economy. Betting on education is a decision that every nation should make as a priority. Virtual teaching – where the teacher acts synchronously with the student – and online – where the teacher acts asynchronously with the student – will be crucial in the future of education. The great price to be paid for the crisis is not only the loss of learning, but that young people might become affected by disaffection and disappointment. Therefore, educational innovation requires collaboration between the public and private sectors. The future of countries will depend on how each educational crisis is managed. In some disciplines, such as medicine, dentistry, chemistry, physics, and engineering, it is imperative to have face-to-face classes. However, they can be complemented with hybrid classes. In other disciplines virtual or online classes are a great option.

The return to face-to-face learning and the classroom environment will be diverse. There will be students who return to school enthused, with many virtual and online learning experiences that will have enriched them. Others will arrive unmotivated. The reopening of the learning centers will require different speeds. The fastest will be in the private education sector. The slowest speed will be in the public education sector. On this last point, it will be necessary to strengthen the public education systems to avoid disparities and strengthen social mobility, and thus avoid the deepening of social inequalities. 

It is imperative to revise the curricular maps for all levels of education in order to ensure that the supply of education corresponds to the demand required by the different economic, social, and cultural sectors in the world, in accordance with the new post-pandemic realities. Specific areas of knowledge will have to be integrated into these plans and study programs, such as: 

the creation of metadata analysis platforms; digital entertainment platforms; home delivery platforms; cyber security in companies; digital services for food companies; distance health services; certified virtual and online consulting; operations management and network (web) engineering; development and implementation of artificial intelligence programs; creation of e-commerce companies; innovation of telecommunications, telephony, and internet technologies; data provision; psychological care; legal accounting at distance; markets for food, beverages, and personal hygiene products; and pharmaceutical, industrial, and medical supply-chain management. 

In short, these are the sectors of health, education, hygiene, food, and the digital world. Jaques Attali rightly calls these latter sectors “economy of life” which will flourish even more. 

“What is needed now is an enormous industrial capacity focused on providing electronic equipment for medicine, technological innovation in the health area, bioethics, etc.” 

Thus, “we will see a strengthening of health care capacities worldwide with the massive incorporation of telemedicine and healthier and less dependent behaviors of large international pharmaceutical laboratories – which create diseases and then cure them – and the promotion of greater international cooperation in the exchange of scientific knowledge.”

It would be essential to create specialties or specific postgraduate studies in global health public policies that would address issues such as global health, country development, war conflicts, humanitarian aid, migration, energy, climate change, security, and international cooperative development. For this reason, we must deepen these axes of growth. In addition, in the educational process, learning will greater emphasize innovation and team collaboration; and the application of knowledge, best practices, writing, observation, and reading.

The pandemic coupled with the global crisis has demonstrated the lack of resources, capabilities, and international cooperation to address issues that concern all countries. The question that should be asked in this regard is: “What can we mean by “international cooperation” in responding to such problems?” The answer would be to articulate a joint action to support and promote the economic and social development of countries – through technologies, knowledge, experiences, or resources – by countries with equal or greater level of development, multilateral organizations, or non-governmental organizations. The objective would be to strengthen international cooperation to reduce the poverty gap between countries and thus strengthen the quality of life of the people and productivity, and to have an exchange of experience and technologies.  

But to achieve all this in the face of coming changes which are faster and more disruptive than ever before, it is precisely in situations like these that the leaders of the future must be prepared. What role will such leaders play in this series of changes that will inevitably occur? How can we, as a society, better prepare them? What should the leaders of today do to face these changes? According to Michael John Williams the main characteristics that a leader should have in times of crisis are adaptability and a solidification of knowledge and skills to act decisively and cooperatively. In a changing world of incentives and disruptive situations, effective leaders are needed who can address these problems. To be an effective leader one should have very fixed principles, such as knowing who you are, what you stand for, and what you believe in, because within any crisis a true leader would react mainly under these principles. The importance that such leaders would have is that thanks to them solutions could be found for people facing a crisis like this or a future one, so that societies can respond collectively. More precisely, facing up to the challenge of forming future leaders would imply inculcating in them a complete global vision of the problems facing society so that they can form multidimensional criteria that allow them to adapt to all the changes that are coming, as well as take advantage of the crises and turn them into opportunities. In such a way, leaders of the future would seek to understand global crises and risks, and provide solutions to issues related to international cooperation, health, global security, energy, climate change, social movements, new relevant factors, etc. 

There already exists a strong tendency for companies to decentralize their operational offices in order to give greater flexibility to workers’ schedules and to reduce their urban mobility and physical interaction. Work spaces will have to be adapted and modified after the pandemic and according to new needs. Written collective and individual work contracts will have to be modified to better regulate “teleworking”, i.e., working from home or from a distance. The right of choice for the modality of work must be guaranteed: face-to-face, distant, or hybrid. In this aspect, the worker will be given the opportunity to return to purely face-to-face work and discrimination against workers who work in person or at a distance will be avoided. 

“Working hours will be adjusted according to the efficiency of the work results and with innovative means of supervision. It is clear that workers will have the right to disconnect from electronic media outside working hours. In addition, there will be the right to permanent training for the good formation of digital competences. In this regard, employers should be obliged to provide adequate and necessary tools for the performance of work at a distance. And, in turn, workers will have the obligation to take care of the work instruments. Several European countries are carrying out studies on this subject and are making progress in the regulation of distance work”.

The model of labor competencies will be modified because new strategies will be required, directed towards the orientation of the client, to the obtainment of goals, with very clear economic and systemic thought. The intrinsic ones will be those focused on planning and organization, on decision making, on interpersonal understanding, and on interactive and permanent communication; seeking at all times personal effectiveness based on integrity, collaboration, self-confidence, analytical thinking, initiative, and flexibility… all this in an environment of administrative and horizontal and transversal communication.

We live in a digital society of risk. This is nothing more than a systematic way of dealing with the dangers and insecurities induced and introduced by modernization itself. In this context, politics acquires a new moral climate in the management of these risks. “A society of risk,” says Anthony Giddens, “is a society where we live increasingly on a high technological frontier… which generates a diversity of possible futures”. Francisco Martínez assures us  that: “The contemporary society, hyperconnected, digital, afflicted with over-exposure to informational impacts, cyber-dependent, is undoubtedly a risk society”. I believe that risk can become a positive opportunity to be used by citizens as a means to limit or subject to scrutiny public authorities and political leaders, and thus mitigate possible damage to society from wrong decisions caused or encouraged by such leaders.

As Paco Moncayo affirms,  it is unquestionable that “…the so-called society of knowledge –resulting from the revolution in science and technology, organized in networks, on a global scale, and communicated in real time – generates scenarios of security, and insecurity, stability and instability that official institutions barely understand and, therefore, are unable to manage”. In this context we understand that the world is globalized. Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, astutely states that “there is a close integration of the countries and peoples of the world, thanks to the reduction of transport and communication costs; artificial barriers to the flow of goods, services, capital, and knowledge have been largely eliminated. However, the same is not true of human mobility; it is a model that leaves, like everywhere else, winners and losers”.

For the same reason, all of this must be subject to review because there were major failures in the implementation of globalization, that instead of distributing wealth achieved only its  concentration. The less developed regions of the world such as Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia must invest in the infrastructure required by the digital economy. In addition, as I said in previous paragraphs, it is essential to establish clear rules for the control of the owners of these media and to prevent the human being from being manipulated and becoming an interchangeable product for sale according to the particular financial-digital interests. 

Development and innovation in the creation of new technologies and networks has modified decision-making processes, and the pandemic has accelerated them. However, there is an enormous risk in imposing social control by technological means as a consequence of the pandemic. Minimally, this risks infringing on people’s freedom and privacy. Furthermore, this whole situation has allowed digital control and concentration in the hands of a few people, as well as great wealth accruing to Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Sundar Pichai (Google) and Tim Cook (Apple), whose companies together represent around five trillion dollars in market value.  This was so to such an extent that a committee of the US Congress concluded – after more than a year and a half of investigation – that the big four were monopolies that prevented competition; and  thus demanded tougher laws for abuse of power by Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple. 

Regarding cyber security, it is necessary to “deepen the capacity to understand, assimilate, elaborate, and properly use information. This is so since the ability to process information is closely linked to other mental functions such as perception, or the ability to receive that information, and memory, along with the ability to store it”. The importance of cyber-security is visualized in the following example: At the center of the pandemic crisis “a scenario analysis was carried out that allowed the detection and blocking of more than 10,000 domains that were going to be used by cyber-criminals for phishing, fake news, or ransomware attacks, taking advantage of the interest in COVID-19 while we were in confinement or working without cyber-security measures”. For all these reasons, national and international policies must be negotiated, regulated, and established to protect the privacy of individuals, companies, institutions, international organizations, and States.

Are we preparing for the next possible catastrophe which is climate change? Jaques Attali’s categorical answer is “No!” In the last 20 years the number of natural disasters has doubled and 90% of them are related to climate change. The UN report entitled ‘The Human Cost of Disasters 2000-2019” also records an increase in all categories of disasters: droughts, forest fires, and extreme temperatures, floods, storms, earthquakes and tsunamis. Most of them are accelerated or caused by climate change. Between 2000 and 2019 there were 7,348 major disasters recorded, which caused the death of 1.23 million people and affected 4.2 billion people and generated a global economic loss of 2.97 trillion dollars.  These are hard facts, therefore the world has to act on them without delay.

On the other hand, it is emphasized that “the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development already implied before this crisis an undeniable opportunity for positive transformation of humanity”. Now it makes it essential for the survival of human beings. In this sense, it is unquestionably important to strengthen the international organizations involved in the control and prevention of climate change… which will profit from the opinion of the experts who design protocols and select the necessary tools for this purpose.

In order to guarantee its sustainability and reduce the vulnerability of the current super concentration in urban centers generated in all parts of our planet, planning of urban and industrial territory cannot be postponed.  In this sense the need is evident to persevere in “achieving the goals and objectives of sustainable development as it is the only way to solve or at least improve solidarity, poverty, health, essential services, rehabilitation of cities, existing industrial centers, and the effects of climate change, as well as imposing new green taxes on polluting activities and companies”. All this is a reason of State and should be implemented in the immediate future.

In his analysis, Mariano Serván observes that: “The effectiveness of the lockdown in its more rigid stages decreased certain levels of environmental pollution, encouraging a certain romanticism around the inevitable evolution towards a more ecological and clean world”.  But once the return to on-the-job or mixed workplace work began to occur, the pollution returned almost to its pre-pandemic levels. Undoubtedly, 

“the priority will be for recuperation of industrial activity and will privilege job creation, which leads to aggressive strategies to achieve the lowest possible cost. Notwithstanding, an opportunity arises to measure the incidence of the pandemic in terms of climate change, in order to promote more sustainable environmental policies.” 

It is now clear that the pandemic has come to remind us of human fragility, of the interconnectedness of human beings, and of the need to “reconnect with nature, with ourselves, and with our fellow human beings” on a global scale.

Furthermore, it must be emphasized that 

“The pandemic has brought the water crisis to light in a new dimension. Insufficient water for washing worsened the spread of the coronavirus in the poorest nations, or those with deficiencies in income distribution in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. There is a glaring inequality created by limited and unpredictable access to clean water. It is beyond the reach of millions of people living without sustainable access to clean water, and reveals the critical link between water and public health”.

By 2030, global population growth will create enormous stress on water supplies. This is due to pollution, territorial inequalities, over-exploitation and privatization of water resources, poor management, and a lack of appreciation of its value. That is why it should be a priority for States and relevant international organizations to analyze this problem, to propose concrete technical actions to solve the water crisis at a global level. If water shortages are not addressed in the short term, they will lead to water wars at the level of national or international territories.

Migration has been an endless historical fact. It is inherent in human beings to always be looking for new opportunities for well-being and development, or to obtain protection and security. The international community must be more receptive to the needs of regions that generate excessive migration. The ravages of the pandemic, the increase in local and regional ethnic conflicts, poverty, and the lack of opportunity will cause migratory movements to increase. In the face of such population movement, the international community must be prepared to confront its attendant problems and offer real solutions to them. Furthermore, it must ensure that human rights and equal opportunities for all citizens are permanently respected.

It may be difficult – as stated by Ma. Del Pilar Rangel – to understand the need to provide assistance to third parties in the current situation of the widespread collapse of health systems, unemployment, and recession, “…but the future of these migrant generating countries concerns everyone and the ramification of their conflicts, including the pressure of migratory movements, may affect other regions”, especially Mexico, the European Union, North Africa, and the Middle East. “On their safety depends our safety is something we must always remember. And that is why rapid response and immediate intervention by agencies such as the United Nations, the European Union, or the G20 is urgently needed because otherwise the short and long term consequences will be devastating not only for the region itself but also for neighboring countries.

It is undeniable that the tourism industry is a dynamic factor in the economies of many countries. It was especially vulnerable to the pandemic crisis, so the return to normalcy will be a huge challenge. Necessary measures will have to be taken to strengthen it at the global level. 

“Economic history shows us that over the years tourism is not a safe sector, at least not in the long run. The events of the past 20th century and the last decades indicate that it is a very volatile sector. There must be inter-institutional collaboration at a global level”.

Promotional strategies will have to be redesigned. Travel will continue to be the engine and facilitator of many of the world’s economies. But we must be very clear that tourism and the aviation industry will not do so well. Tourism will decrease by more than 60 percent. Consequently, it will be necessary to implement plans, projects, and programs to strengthen the tourism sector nationally and globally.

The multilateral system (UN, IMF, WB, etc) created mainly by the US to give stability to the world after 1945 has been undermined by that same country and consequently its world leadership has been weakened. The US has struck and weakened the UN, walked out of UNESCO, UPU, the Human Rights Council, the negotiations for a global pact on migration, and the Paris Climate Change Agreement. It has also attacked the International Criminal Court and cancelled its financial contributions to the WHO. I reiterate the need for a comprehensive restructuring of the UN, WHO, WTO, UNESCO, OAS, EU, etc. The multilateral system must be revised to generate higher levels of trust, coordination, cooperation, legitimacy, and global responsiveness. It is undeniably urgent and indispensable to clean up stale and overpaid bureaucracies. It is essential to drastically reduce current expenditures and convert them into investment expenditures. No international cooperation or integration organization has shown any semblance of enlightened global leadership in the face of the COVID-19 crisis.

On the issue of international organizations, the WTO will have to renegotiate electronic commerce, the agricultural sector, transparency, subsidies, as well as formulate clear rules on the regulation of high technology, servers, computers, etc. The IMF must stop being an ideological institution. It must avoid prejudices and preconceived programs and fixed recipes to be applied to all countries. It must be more open to different types of assessment, much more aware of the problems of inequality, income, and problems generated by orthodox measures.

All these international organizations must:

• improve the transparency of restrictive measures on trade imposed by the COVID-19
• prevent future crises from affecting trade and food security and stability in agricultural markets 
• accelerate the work of these initiatives 
• promote the adoption of digital solutions aimed at ensuring efficient border crossing of essential goods in situations such as under COVID-19 restrictions
• facilitate trade in medical supplies in order to be better positioned for future medical emergencies 
• explore the most efficient way to intensify collaboration with the private sector in order to enhance better public communication of commercial policies
• provide fiscal stimuli at the national and international levels to support health services and protect incomes and jobs 
• undertake progressive tax reform: a tax on large capital and on wealth is needed to help meet the cost of the crisis 
• support systems of social security, such as the establishment of a universal income to favor the most vulnerable populations, since the current crisis makes it clear that every human being must be guaranteed a basic income that gives him/her the possibility of a dignified life 
• ensure that central banks maintain liquidity so that public and private institutions can guarantee their operational functioning and the stability of the financial system 
• enable international cooperation and help multilateral organizations design technical and financial instruments to better benefit developing countries and to grant low interest loans and to strengthen debt relief, deferment, or cancellation.

Diplomacy now faces and will continue to face several challenges, principally to strengthen digital, cultural, technological, geo-economic, geopolitical, and innovative diplomacy. It is clear that the pandemic affected classical diplomacy and international relations as a whole, in particular the way in which diplomatic personnel operate. Videoconferencing will play an increasing role in international relations but classical diplomacy will never be displaced in international negotiations because the physical personal relationship is irreplaceable in the solution of problems. 

However, the hybrid system will continue to exist; that is, face-to-face and virtual, a system that has also proven its effectiveness. It should not be forgotten that a face-to-face relationship has many advantages over a talk through a monitor. This is because diplomacy is the art of negotiation and is based on the tireless search for dialogue and a close and deep human relationship. Diplomacy is an art that has been studied and polished for centuries.

The physical presence of people allows us to communicate better through body language, negotiation rites, gifts, displays of appreciation and affection towards the counterpart… a matter that in a virtual conference is limited to time and space. Human contact is an innate characteristic of people. Aristotle points out that the human being is a political animal and, since then, countless diplomats have experienced in their own flesh the truth behind this phrase. Being close to other people allows us to generate empathy, to sympathize with one another, and to form closer relationships and dialogue more easily. Undoubtedly, virtual diplomacy and twitter diplomacy present great challenges that must be analyzed and resolved.

CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL REFLECTIONS

In summary, the consequences of the pandemic and the challenges of addressing the multisectoral crisis will be as follows:  Globalization, mainly economic, will temporarily slow down but then accelerate and plausibly deepen. It is clear that globalization is not only an economic phenomenon, but a process that is eminently imbedded in technology. Some countries will try to return to a protectionist and supposedly self-sufficient policy. This trend will have to be fought.

Other nations will try to return to reindustrialization with fossil fuels and a high degree of environmental pollution. In this respect, I agree with all the ideas put forward by Rafael Vidal when he stresses that the use of renewable technologies must be deepened. “We must be very strict with the preservation of the environment.” We will have to seriously and firmly confront the problem of water scarcity at a global level and possibly face local, national, and international water wars for which the international community must be prepared with projects, plans, and programs. The United Nations and its entire structure must be re-thought and reinvented, especially those organizations that take people into account, such as the WHO, FAO, and UNICEF. The UN and its subordinate and attached agencies should not be sounding boards for world problems, but should engage in prospective and permanent activity.  It is essential to recreate a new analytical and strategic category of global security covering bioterrorism, biosecurity, and cyber-security. It is essential to “strengthen analysis of the global control of large multinational corporations. For in order to achieve their economic objectives they make extensive use of the geo-economy, to the detriment of States”. Terrorism and bioterrorism will continue to be a global problem. Plausibly terrorist organizations will come out of the current health crisis even stronger, because although they have reduced their attacks, they are preparing massive recruitments in the areas where they have their bases and where they operate. On this last point, it will be necessary to create prospective plans for their containment.

As for international trade, the same trends will continue, and without a doubt, the locomotive of recovery will continue to be Asia. In the digital world, the explosion of smart phones in the consumer market will continue to penetrate international society. They are and will continue to be a new center of power, since they have transformed a multitude of citizens into direct actors in the most varied processes: political, economic, and social. Therefore, new regulations will have to be formulated so that the human being not become a product controlled or manipulated by the owners of the digital world.

In addition, we must strengthen regional development, revitalize global cooperation, restore the health of the environment through sustainable development, redesign labor contracts, recover economic well-being, stop ethnic and racial conflicts, strengthen the fight against hunger, stop the production of weapons of mass destruction, restore political accountability, and strengthen the rule of law.

The global pandemic has exposed to the naked light of day the incompetence of rulers, the corruption of health bureaucracies, and the untrustworthiness of the media. How right are those who claim that “never has a public health problem been so politicized; never have political decisions been passed off as scientific knowledge to such a degree and with such dishonesty”. This was seen ad nauseam in many Latin American countries where the rate of infection and death reflected the action or inaction taken by rulers and the responsibility or irresponsibility of citizens. The instructions by the World Health Organization in all countries of the world were the same: confinement, constant hand washing, use of masks, social distancing, etc. In some cases they were respected; in others, not. Governments and political parties negatively influenced the social realm by politicizing the pandemic (as in the case of the United States), but also the media and businesses (as in the case of Mexico).

In this situation, it is worth remembering some historical anecdotes, like the occasion when Karol Wojtyla (John Paul II) asked out loud, “What are we leaders here for if not to correct the immoral impulses of the masses?”  However, in the face of today’s troubled world, and the lack of world leadership, I would paraphrase this thought: “What are the masses here for if not to correct the immoral impulses of the leaders?” The world today no longer wishes to continue deceiving itself as Fabrizio Corbera, Prince of Salina, once did: “If we want everything to remain as it is, it is necessary that everything changes”… since in the face of the convulsed world of the Garibaldian era the prince foresaw the collapse of his particular cosmogony and wanted only to change so that everything would remain the same. Today, for the good of humanity, the world needs “Copernican changes” that alter the essence of the human being and our reality. 

The great economist Jacques Attali is right in asserting that: 

…humanity has not yet understood the depth of the crisis that is approaching, that will be very, very profound in terms of recession, unemployment, misery, and a burdensome resurrection. I believe that we really have not yet understood what is happening. I mean, all the countries of the West and many others in various parts of the world have injected so much money into the market through their central banks that they are hiding the reality of the crisis: primarily, by postponing its consequences and leading people to think that it will be easy to solve, with the mere printing of money… but this is simply not true.

The IMF, since it was created and in what it is doing now, is disguising the fact that the crisis is bigger and deeper than it seems. Given this situation, I believe that the world must be prepared for a long recession in years to come.

In that sense Joseph Nye predicts several scenarios for the post pandemic: 

• increased inequality and unemployment. 
• the strengthening of nationalist, authoritarian or populist systems on the right and left 
• the empowerment of China at the global level and the deepening of its strategy to achieve this through the New Silk Road initiative 
• the green agenda on climate change, well-being, and planetary health, and the response of a new US leadership to the new geopolitics of the world under the UN 2030 Program.

I believe, however, that in the face of any one of these scenarios the world must be prepared with a panoply of options such as those outlined in this essay. From the above, it is clear that the world will have to act with a prospective vision, taking into account possible scenarios for possible pandemics in the future, with well-defined strategies to face them, with multidimensional public policies, considering the local and global context, facilitating the efficient and effective use of resources with a governance close to the people, and a professionalization attached to evaluation and performance. As the great Chinese philosopher Lao Tze said, “If you don’t change course, you may end up exactly where you are today”.

We must talk about a global reconstruction. Contemporary international society must create mechanisms to help build and rebuild our society. When I speak of reconstruction, I don’t mean to go back to the way things were before, but to take the foundations that were left after the catastrophe and build on them something more solid to help us face looming present and future crises as a postmodern society. In the same vein, the great English philosopher Bertrand Russell once said that it was healthy to put a question mark over things that have long been taken for granted. This crisis has demonstrated the excess of confidence we had in our world. The great lesson of this crisis must be that the world, States, health institutions, international organizations, businesses, entrepreneurs, and civil society as a whole must be prepared to deal with future pandemics and other multifactorial crises such as those facing our planet today. The establishment of national and international public policies in crisis management, and in particular in risk management, cannot be postponed

History has graced us with writers and poets who have expressed their ideas in publication that have been transcendental in their impact. Such is the case of Publius Virgil in Georgics – a book of great wisdom: “Happy are those who would know the causes of things.” (Felix qui pouit rerum cognoscere causas). Today we have the capacity to know the causes of problems, to understand them, and to exert the will to transform them. Now is the time to undertake this feat. We must take seriously that Chinese proverb that says: “Learn to cure the disease that has not yet arrived”. The COVID-19 came to us and we were not prepared, so in the future we will have to be prepared to face what is to come. Discipline saved many Chinese, indiscipline drowned many Spaniards, arrogance killed many Americans, I hope this lesson will serve many Latin Americans.

Finally, it must be stated that, in the midst of the multidimensional COVID-19 crisis, the lack of trust, collaboration, coordination, and awareness among States and international organizations came clearly to the forefront. This has been a very painful lesson and, for the sake of humanity, one that will have to be remedied through international cooperation without preconditions. The pandemic – more than anything else – has shown the prevalence of the globalization of disorder on our planet.

SPECIALIZED SOURCES CONSULTED.

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